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Tracking cryptococcal meningitis to monitor HIV program success during the Treat-All era: an analysis of national data in Botswana

James Milburn 1 2Ookeditse Ntwayagae 3Rachita Suresh 1Kebatshabile Ngoni 1Cassie Northcott 1James Penney 1Matthew Kinsella 1Imogen Mechie 1Samuel Ensor 1Goitseone Thamae 1Tshepo Leeme 1David S Lawrence 1 2Tony Chebani 4Daniel Grint 5Mark W Tenforde 6Ava Avalos 1Dinah Ramaabya 4Justus Ogando 7Margaret Mokomane 8Madisa Mine 9Joseph N Jarvis 1 2

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Abstract

Background: Cryptococcal meningitis (CM) causes substantial mortality in African countries with a high prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), despite advances in disease management and increasing antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage. Reliable diagnosis of CM is cheap and more accessible than other indicators of advanced HIV disease burden such as CD4 testing or investigation for disseminated tuberculosis; therefore, monitoring CM incidence has the potential to serve as a valuable metric of HIV programmatic success.

Methods: Botswana national meningitis surveillance data from 2015 to 2022 were obtained from electronic health records. All electronic laboratory records from cerebrospinal fluid samples analyzed within government healthcare facilities in Botswana were extracted from a central online repository. Adjustments for missing data were made through triangulation with prospective cohort study datasets. CM case frequency was enumerated using a case definition and incidence calculated using national census data.

Results: A total of 1744 episodes of CM were identified; incidence declined from 15.0 (95% confidence interval [CI], 13.4-16.7) cases/100 000 person-years in 2015 to 7.4 (95% CI, 6.4-8.6) cases/100 000 person-years in 2022. However, the rate of decline slowed following the introduction of universal treatment in 2016. The highest incidence was observed in men and individuals aged 40-44 years. The proportion of cases diagnosed through cryptococcal antigen testing increased from 35.5% to 86.3%.

Conclusions: CM incidence has decreased in Botswana following expansion of ART coverage but persists at a stubbornly high incidence. Most cases are now diagnosed through the cheap and easy-to-use cryptococcal antigen test, highlighting the potential of using CM as key metric of program success in the Treat All era.

Keywords: Botswana; advanced HIV disease; cryptococcal meningitis; opportunistic infections.

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Conflict of interest statement

Potential conflicts of interest. J. M. and J. N. J. have received investigator-initiated funding from bioMérieux. J. N. J. has received grants from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). D. S. L. has received salary support from Janssen, CDC, and NIHR. A. A. has received research support from ViiV Healthcare; research support and support for meetings and/or travel from Viatris Pharmaceuticals; contract from Botswana Harvard Health Partnership; consulting fees from UNAIDS; participation on an advisory board and support for meetings and/or travel from the World Health Organization; and membership on the University of Botswana Institutional Review Board. S. E. reports support for meetings and/or travel from the International AIDS Society. J. O. reports support for meetings and/or travel from the Clinton Health Access Initiative. I. M. reports support for meetings and/or travel from the Jill & Herbert Hunt Scholarship, Oxford University. All other authors report no potential conflicts. All authors have submitted the ICMJE Form for Disclosure of Potential Conflicts of Interest. Conflicts that the editors consider relevant to the content of the manuscript have been disclosed.

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